In recent news, there has been a lot of talk about tensions with Russia and the possibility of war. Tensions have been on the rise for a while now, and it’s unclear whether this is a serious threat that could lead to war, or if it’s just a political power move. The reason these tensions are happening is because of a dispute with Ukraine. 

In 2014, Russia annexed the area of Ukraine known as the Crimean Peninsula through force and threats. Since then, there has been on and off conflict at the Ukrainian  border and around 1,300 people have died in the conflict. They signed a cease fire in 2019, but that hasn’t stopped Russian Separatists from attacking Ukrainian troops. Ukraine and Russia tensions have been high for a while, but they seem to be at their peak right now. 

There has been discussion about a possible war between Russia and Ukraine, leading to western interference, many times before. However, it is the closest to happening now, more than any other time in the past. At the moment, Russia has 70% of their military power prepped for war, and over 130,000 troops on the border of Ukraine. Although Russia hasn’t made any official action yet, they haven’t said they won’t invade. There have been peace talks and talk about sanctions if Russia does invade Ukraine, but the situation still hasn’t changed. Many major news outlets are reporting about the high likelihood of war, and Biden had a press release telling all US citizens to leave Ukraine as soon as possible. The US has also deployed 3,000 troops to Poland in order to protect bordering NATO members in an event of over spill. There are also about 8,000 US troops prepared to be deployed to Eastern Europe at any time. These are all signs that there may be a war coming. 

But what happens if we go to war?

If Russia decides to invade Ukraine, almost all NATO Countries will be backing Ukraine. That includes major countries such as the US, France, Italy, Turkey, and the UK. It’s very likely that a massive war between NATO countries and Russia will ensue if Russia decides to take further action against Ukraine. Russia won’t have many allies, but it’s possible China would back them due to tensions with the Taiwan situation. In addition, Russia and China have been forging closer ties, including President Putin of Russia meeting with President Xi of China during the 2022 Olympic games. Although there has not been any official backing, it is a very real possibility China would back Russia in a war against the west. If this conflict further ensues, we will likely be looking at the largest war since World War Two. Although most countries would try to avoid it, there is always a possibility that any war involving countries with nuclear capabilities will end up as a nuclear war.

How can war be prevented? 

Currently, the actions of world leaders is what can prevent this war from happening. Russia has met with many world leaders and has made countless demands that they say will “reduce European tensions”. These demands include that no Western countries will house troops in eastern Europe. They also include that Ukraine and other eastern European countries won’t join NATO. There has been talk of Ukraine joining NATO now more than ever. Russia wants to make sure NATO doesn’t have any more influence, especially not in Eastern Europe. Complying with these demands will most definitely prevent war but they are unreasonable and don’t fit with the ideology of NATO. The other way to diplomatically resolve this situation is by pushing sanctions. Sanctions are when countries ban trade or other activities with another country. There has already been the idea of sanctions against Russia if they invade Ukraine. The US and Germany are working on possible Russian Oil Sanctions. They will make it so that Russia’s biggest Oil Pipeline to Germany, Nord Stream 2, will no longer flow oil. This will cut off a large portion of the oil access to Russia. If more sanctions like that are threatened on Russia, it may prevent them from invading Ukraine.